Reading the tea leaves
2025-12-09

Credit default swap (CDS) trading activity reflects market sentiment about potential default on a debt -- such as a loan or bond.

Now that AI-related firms are loading up on debt, CDS activity could serve as an important indicator.

(Source: IFR, "Taking a position: AI debt frenzy gives birth to new CDS markets")

Point being: hand-waving is cheap. Market sentiment reflects people putting real money behind their views.

Accidents happen

Every incident is a learning opportunity

Wrap recap

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